BC Filly & Mares Turf: The Biggest Challenge Yet

The field was drawn yesterday for the Breeder's Cup Filly and Mare Turf (gr. I) with Princess Azula (V) receiving the number eight hole. While not the best position, it's much better than being on the far outside where Azula would have to cross over thirteen other horses when she tries to make the lead. Because the race begins on the last furlong of the downhill turf course this does give her a half mile run up to seize the rail before the first turn. Of course the odd turf/dirt/turf transition can be difficult for some horses to handle so shortly after the post draw Azula made her final prep, posting a 1:361(g) turf mile with Garret Gomez aboard. The work was rated as handily.

While not her speediest time, Garret pointed out that Azula seemed a little awkward crossing the transition from turf to dirt and back. This was a little expected as she's never raced down the hill before. I think the experience could pay dividends on Friday because the race will likely end in a photo. Even one lost step or the slightest hesitation could be the difference between first and fifth.

The definite favorite for the F&M Turf, whose case is made even stronger by her spot in the four position, is Liz Miz (V) who strung together two crushing efforts until barely missing in the Flower Bowl (gr. I) because of distance lost. Had Azula been the two and Liz Miz the one, the race would have likely finished the other way around. The Miz is all about speed so look for her on the front.

The second choice will likely go to Market Reversal (V) who after being picked up for a claim of $40 won the Yellow Ribbon (gr. I) on October the 10th. A lot of punters are going to give her extra attention because the Ribbon was the same conditions as will be Friday. In addition the stable has an outstanding 23% win percentage in graded events.

That puts Azula as 3rd choice which is fine by me since it seems that when my horses are strongly favored they turn a dull effort. It’s said that favorites win 33% of the time; however for me it’s more like 10%. Besides who doesn't enjoy rooting for the underdog? Azula's solid speed should put her in a good position on or near the lead while her finishing kick will make it difficult for the closers to slip through traffic and catch her. If she does lose it’s going to be decided on the first turn and how wide she runs. There’s a lot of inside speed which is concerning.

At this point everything is done on my end; all the preparations are complete. This will definitely be Azula's biggest challenge to date. Can she handle it? I’m running with the big dogs now. The Princess has had a huge year and this is just the cherry on the top. So there are no expectations, just simply enjoyment of the moment in being in my first Breeder's Cup.

Here is the SRF's preview of the race and concerning the Princess they write:

"What a race horse this fine filly is - six wins and four placings from her ten starts. She's won on dirt, turf, inner turf - six furlongs to a mile and a quarter. You have to believe they could run this one around the shed-row and she'd be right in the middle of things. That was a very nice score in the Flower Bowl (GI), where I seriously doubted that she could get the distance - per usual, I was wrong. Note that G Gomez has been on her back in four of her starts - as a team, they've never lost a race."

The SRF pegged Princess Azula to win with odds of 3-1. Let's hope they're right.

Perseverance!